How To Underwrite Multifamily Investments Like an Economist in 2026

Stop Guessing. Start Stress Testing.

Most investors underwrite like they’re filling out a vision board: plug in optimistic rent growth, shave expenses, and call it a deal. That’s not underwriting. That’s gambling.

Economists do it differently. They anchor assumptions in real data and then break the model on purpose to see where it fails. If you want to survive 2026, you need to do the same.

Macro First, Property Second

Economists never start with a single property. They start with the system. In 2026, that means asking:

• Where are rates headed?

• How fast are wages rising?

• What’s the actual supply pipeline in this city?

Only then do you drop down to property-level numbers.

The Underwriting Framework for 2026

1. Revenue Assumptions Based on Wages: Forget “market rent” pulled from a glossy listing. Tie rent growth to wage growth. If average wages in Hamilton grew 3% last year, don’t assume 8% rent hikes.

2. Expense Discipline: Stop pretending insurance and utilities will stay flat. Use actual trailing 12-month expense growth from comparable properties.

3. Debt Stress Test: Always run the deal at today’s interest rate plus 1%. If it breaks, it’s fragile.

4. Vacancy Buffers: No market is immune. Always underwrite with 5% vacancy minimum.

Case Study: London 18-Plex

• Asking: $3.2M

• NOI (real, not broker pro forma): $220K

• Financing: 70% CMHC at 5.25%

• DSCR: 1.27 under base case, 1.19 under stressed rates

The deal works, but only if you accept slim margins and plan reserves. Without stress testing, you’d call this bulletproof. With stress testing, you see it’s stable but not invincible.

Investor Playbook

• Tie rent assumptions to wage growth, not hype.

• Build in vacancy and expense growth.

• Stress test debt with higher rates.

• Underwrite like an economist. Think macro first, micro second.

• OntarioMultifamily.ca is where disciplined investors connect with professionals who understand underwriting beyond the broker’s glossy sheet.