The Real Estate Cycle in 2026: Where Are We Now?

Cycles Always Win

Real estate is cyclical. Peaks, crashes, recoveries — they always come. Investors who forget that mistake momentum for truth.

By 2026, Canada’s multifamily market has shifted into a new phase. The question is: are we still in the downturn, or climbing back into recovery?

Reading the Signs

1. Prices Peaked in 2022. The “easy appreciation” era is over.

2. Refinancing Pressure. Maturing debt is forcing sales. Distressed listings are rising.

3. Institutional Interest. Funds are circling again, waiting for bottom pricing.

4. Transaction Volumes. After a frozen 2023–24, deals are moving again — selectively.

This is the late-downturn to early-recovery transition.

Why It Matters for Multifamily Investors

• Distress = Opportunity. Forced sellers create discounts.

• Stability Returns. With rates holding steady, underwriting is possible again.

• Institutional Activity Signals a Floor. When pensions and REITs start buying, it means pricing has bottomed.

Case Study: GTA vs Windsor

• GTA Multifamily: Prices peaked hardest, so distress is sharper. But cash flow is still weak due to pricing relative to rents.

• Windsor Multifamily: Prices never overheated as badly, so deals remain closer to cash flow stability.

The cycle doesn’t hit every market the same way.

How Investors Should Position Themselves

• Focus on Forced Sales. These are the cleanest discounts.

• Don’t Wait for “Perfect Timing.” No one calls the exact bottom.

• Underwrite With Discipline. Recovery doesn’t mean loosen your standards.

• Leverage Institutional Moves. If large buyers re-enter, that’s validation.

Investor Playbook

• The cycle has shifted: late downturn, early recovery.

• Distress sales are the best opportunity.

• Institutions moving back in signals stability.

• OntarioMultifamily.ca is your entry point into broker networks surfacing these trades first.