Beyond Immigration: The Real Drivers of Rent Growth in 2026

The Lazy Narrative Needs to Die

Every blog still blames immigration for rent spikes. That’s outdated. Ottawa already capped immigration in 2024. Yet rents are higher in 2026 than ever. Clearly something else is going on.

The Real Drivers of Rent Growth

1. Household Formation: Millennials and Gen Z are leaving their parents’ homes later, but they’re leaving. Boomers are downsizing. That creates more households without needing more people.

1. Wages: Rents rise with paychecks. Healthcare, trades, and logistics are booming. Higher wages = higher achievable rents.

2. Urban Spillover: Toronto’s unaffordable. Renters move to Hamilton, London, Barrie, Windsor. Those secondary markets absorb the pressure, pushing rents higher.

Why This Matters For Investors

If you’re still underwriting based only on immigration numbers, you’re missing the point. Real rent growth follows:

• Household formation rates

• Wage growth in key industries

• Spillover migration from unaffordable urban cores

Case Study: London vs Toronto

• Toronto 2-bed: $3,200

• London 2-bed: $2,200 (up from $1,600 in 2021)

Immigration didn’t do that. Household formation and spillover did.

Investor Playbook

• Stop repeating immigration headlines.

• Track household formation, wages, and spillover.

• Target secondary markets with real income-driven demand.

• OntarioMultifamily.ca is the hub where investors find deals positioned around these drivers, not outdated narratives.